Here's an interesting poll update on the WA Senate race--if you think asking about only one of the likely participants is of interest. Rightish robopoller Rasmussen Reports released results* from a survey put in the field over the weekend, and on the surface things look pretty solid for Maria Cantwell: she garners a 57-36 approval rating, easily above the conventional wisdom safety net of 50%. And she absolutely crushes her challengers, Chris...Vance? and...Rick White?
If you've followed Washington's politics even a little bit this summer, you're probably having the same reaction I did: where's Mike McGavick, soon-to-be-ex-Safeco CEO, exploratory committee website holder, and putative nominee if you ask MyDD.com? Good question, and one I've passed on to Scott Rasmussen for reply. Until then, you'll have to sate yourself with the report of meaningless blowout advantages against Vance (57-32) and White (56-33).
Perhaps the most stunning number is almost buried in this story: Christine Gregoire's approval rating in this poll sits at 51%, a far cry from SurveyUSA's pegging of her in the low 40s/high 30s since May. SUSA is not known to have any real partisan leanings, and is a robopoller like Rasmussen, so I find the latter number quite curious. There is no August report from SUSA that I can find (they just released Bush's state by state numbers though, and they almost uniformly suck!), so it's possible that this is improvement by Gregoire, or noise, or a combination of the two.
If you have your internet gloves on, you can check out Strategic Vision's poll from last week (linked from SoundPolitics) that DID include McGavick, showing Cantwell up 46-38, with a 47-36 approval rating. Gregoire's approval in that one is an anemic 36%, below even SUSA's estimation. I've come to trust Rasmussen's accuracy over the years despite their clientele and moderate editorial bias in reporting their results, but SV is pretty much the mirror of Democracy Corps, so take them with a grain of salt.
So to recap:
Cantwell--looking strong now that Dino's gone
McGavick--should explore faxing a press release to the Rasmussens
Gregoire--might finally be putting Rossigate behind her
Bush--HA-HA! </Nelson Muntz>
--TJ
*sweet alliteration!
Rasmussen leans slightly right, but SV leans hard right. Rasmussen is probably closer to the truth. The big question is when will there be an Elway poll of Washington on Govenor Gregoire, Cantwell, and the initiatives. I would think we would have one out by mid-September. That should give everyone a good idea where things really stand.
The other interesting question is why are there more people (approximately 2%) that like Rick White over Vance? That just seems strange. Vance ain't that great, but he isn't the fool that White is (like him or loathe him, Vance at least runs the party efficiently).
Posted by: JDB | August 17, 2005 at 11:22
agreed on Ras v SV, which is why I only called them "rightish."
As for Vance v White, 2% isn't a meaningful difference, especially among only 500 responses. Consider them both sucky in the eyes of WA voters. !
Posted by: torridjoe | August 17, 2005 at 11:25
Let's see. . .
McGavick isn't even recognized as a candidate. Haaaaa. . . haaaa. . . haaaa!
Gregoire bounced back from the GOP $2.5 million propaganda effort. Whaaaa. . . haaaaa. . . haaaa.
And now the state GOP party is massively in debt. Ohh. . . hooo. . . haa. . . ha.
Stop it TJ, I'm breaking ribs here laughing!
Posted by: darryl | August 17, 2005 at 12:08