Out a little while ago from NYT: the vote is cancelled, with no new date set:
An optimistic tone was struck by President Jalal Talabani, however, soon after the delay was announced.
"Efforts are still continuing to reach consensus in the coming hours," he said at a joint news conference with a Sunni leader, and he stressed that the Sunnis should get a bigger role in drafting the constitution.
The announcement that Parliament would miss the second extended deadline places the current government on uncertain legal authority. Under the rules that were agreed to last year the National Assembly is obliged to dissolve itself and hold new elections if it is unable to reach agreement on the interim constitution.
On balance, I agree with Armando at Kos, who gets the hat tip: this is better than taking the vote, passing it without Sunni support, and then dealing with the consequences. One suspects now that the current draft of the constitution is no longer likely to be the final version, meaning that the issues of federalism, women's rights, oil distribution and the primacy of Islamic jurisprudence are still theoretically on the table. At home politically, the truly ridiculous endorsement of the draft by the Bush administration now looks to be a mistake they'll escape punishment for.
However, as the Times points out, the Iraqi government is now in limbo, legally speaking. They were supposed to have it done by midmonth, or the parliament dissolved. After two extensions, now there is no discrete timeframe for approval. Is there a movement in Iraq to start over with new elections? Juan Cole suggests there are rumblings among the more secular Shiites and some of the centralized government-friendly Kurds for trying to enforce dissolution, but it's not clear that they have the political strength to do so:
Al-Zaman suggests that some parliamentarians, including Allawi and some of the Kurds, actually want parliament dissolved and new elections held, convinced that in the next parliament the religious Shiites will not have such a dominant position. They think that might be a better situation for drafting the constitution. Al-Zaman did not give any quotes or proof that this suggestion is founded in more than speculation.
Given that few details are yet available about the latest delay and reaction from the principals, most of the rest of the Times article is devoted to the violence that swept the country yesterday. The news of our old friend al-Sadr being involved in Shiite-on-Shiite clashes yesterday is not too good, although it appears that some residents of Najaf are not wild about the hold on power the Mahdi army continues to wield in some areas of southern Iraq. And of course the Sunni bombings, kidnappings and attacks continue in ever more brazen and organized fashion.
Update 930--
If you believe Reuters as of 10 minutes ago, the draft will still be approved today. But they're the only ones I can see who are reporting that still, and this may be why:
"[the source of the report, government spokesman] Laith Kubba has been saying that we solved the disputes for a month now, but so far we have not gotten anywhere," Hussein al-Falluja, a Sunni member of the constitution panel, told Reuters. "If this constitution continues to include federalism it should be put in the bin and done again."
On the other hand, AP has quotes from leading Shiites who suggest the cancellation of the vote simply means they believe the draft was approved Monday, and the next vote will be the popular referendum in October:
Whether a new assembly vote on the charter was even necessary was in question, however. At the same time, a meeting was scheduled for Thursday night among Iraq's factional leaders, and it was possible that parliament could be convened afterward on short notice.
Shiite representative Khaled al-Attiyah said there was no need for an assembly vote because the constitutional committee met its legal obligations by handing in a draft by the Aug. 22 deadline. Another Shiite, Nadim al-Jabiri, said there would be no vote Thursday because the draft will be approved or rejected in a popular referendum Oct. 15.
Let's just say things are a little confused right now.
Update 3pm--
and yet more confused. Now the parliamentary speaker claims a one-day extension has been granted--but if that doesn't help iron things out, it will simply go to referendum without a vote or apparently even a reading:
Hajim al-Hassani, speaking minutes after the midnight deadline, said after meeting for three days, "we found that time was late and we saw that the matters will need another day in order to reach results that please everyone."
Earlier, however, a negotiator said Shiites didn't even show up for a late-night meeting.
I think Billmon's on the right track here; this sounds like sham politics in order to gin up a propitious outcome for the Shia. The draft itself is bad enough, in that it seemingly guarantees a marginalization of the Sunni faction. But if the appearances of how it's going to be done are accurate, it will be that much tougher to forestall the worst of outcomes.
--TJ
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