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May 10, 2005


Rome Johnson

Regarding BRAC list predictions:
Anybody that far off and obviously ignorant to the eventual reality should keep their mouth shut and stay out of making predictions.
Nothing you have to say whether a prediction or an opinion has any value any longer.



Yay! Thousands of googlers link through to these BRAC posts and I finally get a comment.

Rome, if you saw our referrals you would know that virtually everyone seeking information was looking for what I eventually provided. I certainly qualified my statements by saying if even "90%" on the 2nd early list proves accurate, and "with very few surprises" I expected the g2mil list to pretty much have it covered.

So, I guess you consider those I DEFERRED to to be "obviously ignorant," because I didn't post my own list which I couldn't, for lack of time and knowledge, reasonably narrow beyond 120 bases. You should probably know that NavySeals.com posted the same lists, as did several milbloggers and MSNBC's primary commentator on the topic. But, I guess we should all just shut our mouths and never try to provide people with information again, and just drop this topic like a hot rock the way the corporate media did for months. Since nothing any of us have to say has any value whatsoever in lieu of the surprising recommendations. Right? I did defer to military experts after vetting their speculation via several military forums and civilian defense analysts. I guess we just shouldn't report, eh? Nice.

Here's a tip. Go back to the g2mil list and take a closer look. As advertised here at Also Also, Carlton Meyer did an excellent job, and I'm happy I endoresed his work over anothe dozen that were not as thorough.

If you were expecting anybody to guess or even worry about the 150 minor moves to 600 little moves, well, you probably haven't followed the process in the past. Of the 33 major closures, g2mil got 22 of them. Considering the constantly changing message from the Pentagon, and the fact that Chem Depots, Medical Centers, finance operations, and leased space are being categorized as major bases by the Pentagon, I'd say Carlton's list was far and away the best one on the internet.

Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy the continuing coverage. The summer long food fight in Congress should be good entertainment. Typically, about 10% of the major recommendations wiggle out a pardon, but something rarely mentioned is that there is always a trade off from the commission, and another 15% is historically added to the list.


Also Rome, I agree that predictions on a process like this are dicey, but again, that's what everyone wanted to see. So, that's where I focused in the run up. Now that the recommendations are in, I won't be sharing others predictions anymore, just reporting on the battles, and speculating about motives and politics, not outcomes.

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