January 07, 2006

Band of Brothers: The 2006 Fightin' Dems

This came up while I was still in Virginia on holiday, so perhaps the whole 'sphere was atwitter about it and I am now presenting thoroughly old news. Via DonkeyRising (and apparently onto Kos thereafter), ThinkProgress notes the birth of the guild/support group/PAC known as Band of Brothers: a roster of veteran Democrats, particularly Iraq veterans, running for federal office across the country. (TP follows up on the story here). 

This is extraordinarily smart use of money for this cycle, IMO. I think it's worthwhile to consider the cautioning counsel that simply being a veteran is not a winning strategy--"John Kerry, reporting for duty"--but as indicated on their website, the plan is a broader one of support and coalition of message:

We aim to bring middle class and lower income Americans back into the decision making process by promoting candidates that may not otherwise be heard.

Band of Brothers 2006 is premised on the basic idea that all Americans should be given the same opportunities to succeed. We support policies that promote American Values:

  • Basic health care coverage for all Americans
  • Expanded education opportunity
  • Responsible use of our Military
  • A foreign policy that promotes US leadership with NATO, the UN, and our allies in the war on terror
  • Overhaul, reform, and simplify the tax system

The Band of Brothers 2006 campaign will focus on exposing neo-conservative agendas and policies that are in conflict with great American traditions.

  • Values and Patriotism – Clarity on which values are to be honored and which values are under siege.
  • Corporate Responsibility – Reinforce the sensibilities of the middle class while illustrating how neo-conservative agendas encourage corruption and greed in big corporations.
  • Exposing Bush – Put the spotlight on policies that benefit the 1%, on Republican base strategy, payoffs, and cronyism.
  • Foreign Policy – Not contesting the need to fight the war on terror, but illustrating that the Bush foreign policy makes it more difficult and costly.
  • The Economy – Serious discussion on low income growth, increasing inequality, rising health care cost, cuts in public services, and a deepening middle class squeeze.

There is obviously a concentration on the politics of war, but it's one that's sorely needed. Current Democratic members of Congress have been loathe to speak up firmly about the failures in Iraq and how to go about fixing them, because when they do they get the Murtha Treatment--and it does take a strong constitution (little c and big C) to withstand the attacks. Why is Murtha able to withstand it? Because he's got the credibility, and in general so should the other veteran candidates. They've been there, they understand the reality on the ground, and likely have a feel for what does and doesn't work.

The coalition also recognizes, however, that just being "a veteran" doesn't make you a savvy politician, and aims to help the candidates learn the ropes of campaigning--phone banking, town halls, message development. And of course each candidate has his (or her) own set of values and priorities, and is running in a different district or state with its own priorities as well. The job is to help tailor individual campaigns within an overarching theme: experience and achievement-based ideals.

In this context, the veterans are a good match for the "accomplishment Democrats" like Warner in VA and Schweitzer in OR, who are able to run on the theory that government CAN work if it's run well. This is where the important focus on the "Republican culture of corruption" can be applied in a positive manner to distinguish Democrats: corruption and favors are the ultimate enemies of properly working government. The Republicans don't believe in government, they themselves admit, and thus neglect the hard work that must go into it for it to be run successfully. Corruption is a short-circuiting of the process, a tool for the cravenly disengaged.

The war is a prime example of the triumph of style over substance. Republicans have won elections on the basis of appearing tough, rather than achieving goals based on proper preparation and smart use of resources. Hurricane Katrina went a long way towards exposing the fallacy that we don't need a functioning government, and reminded us that we need competence from our public servants. Few professions are as well-regarded for developing competence and integrity as the military, so putting soldiers to work on fixing government is a natural fit.

The Band of Brothers (there are women; the term "brother" is generic) is seeking to raise $10 million for the 2006 elections; I think it's an entirely worthy cause. If you happen to have one of them running in your area, check them out and do what you can to support their efforts. Here's the full roster, currently (why not? Bandwidth is cheap these days):

AZ-03: Herb Paine

Herb Paine is president of Paine Consulting Services, a leading enterprise specializing in business strategy, organization development, and turnaround management for a diverse range of public, private, and nonprofit sector clients. […] He received his Master’s degree from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in 1970, specializing in American Foreign Policy, Soviet Affairs, and International Economics. Following his service in the U.S. Army, he embarked on a career devoted to human services, social justice, and community problem-solving, spending thirteen years with the United Way. Prior to establishing his consulting practice in 1989, Herb was Executive Director of United Way of California and the leading legislative advocate for the nonprofit sector in California.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

AZ-08: Jeff Latas

Jeff Latas arrived in Arizona in 1978 to attend first Pima College and then the University of Arizona, where he graduated with a degree in Aerospace Engineering. After a career as a fighter pilot in the United States Air Force, and after earning a Master’s degree in Public Administration, Jeff chose to settle in his beloved southern Arizona for good. A lifelong environmentalist and patriot, Jeff is ready to serve southeastern Arizonans as their representative in Congress.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

CA-04: Charles Brown

From his web site: “Born in Iowa, I grew up in small farm towns, doing farm work and absorbing strong mid-Western values. I received a Congressional Appointment to the U. S. Air Force Academy and graduated in 1972. As a rescue helicopter pilot based in Thailand at the end of the Vietnam War, I participated in the evacuation of Phnom Penh, and the Mayaguez incident. I was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross for actions in the Mayaquez incident. […] I earned a Masters Degree in Aviation Management from Embry Riddle University, hold a California teaching credential and am a certified Red Cross instructor.”

Bio | Issues | Volunteer

CA-11: Steve Filson

Steve Filson joined the Navy in 1970 and became an Aircraft Carrier Jet pilot. He served his country faithfully and diligently for more than 20 years before retiring from the Navy in 1994. During his service, Filson served aboard the aircraft carriers USS Hancock and USS Ranger, and then continued his military career in the Naval Reserves at Alameda, California.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

CA-46: Jim Brandt

Jim served as a Naval aviator in the Marine Corps during the Vietnam War. As an officer (rank of captain), he was responsible for both aircraft and personnel under the most stressful of circumstances. The competition to become a Naval aviator is intense; only the best are awarded wings. His experience in the Marine Corps gave him a global vision with a lasting appreciation for the importance of making the right decisions and understanding diplomacy.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

CA-48: John Graham

During 1970-74 Graham served as an officer in U.S. Navy Underwater Demolition Team Eleven in Coronado, CA and the Philippines. From 1974-79 he served in the U.S. Navy Reserves with UDT/Seal Team 119, also based in Coronado. He is currently a Professor at the Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine (UCI).

Bio | Issues | Contribute

CA-52: Karen Otter

Karen was born and raised in San Diego, California. After graduating from high school, Karen enlisted in the United States Army and served as a Pershing Missile Crewman. Assigned to Army units in Oklahoma and Germany, Karen found remarkable the dedication to service of her fellow soldiers. The discipline and training of the Army engrained in Karen a superior work ethic and responsibility to service. After leaving the military, Karen worked in increasingly responsible areas of administration and management. She obtained certification as a Community Association Manager. She has extensive experience in management of entities of a governmental nature where budgets are essential and rules and regulations are enacted and enforced.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

CO-05: Jay Fawcett

At seventeen, Jay joined the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs as a Cadet with the class of 1977. Upon graduation he went to Navigator training and was selected as a Weapon Systems Officer in the F4 Phantom, serving in fighter squadrons in Korea and Spain. He became Air Liaison Officer for the First Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division, and was deployed into military action in the first Gulf War. Major Fawcett was awarded a Bronze Star for his actions in Desert Shield and the initial helicopter assault into Iraq during Desert Storm.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

CO-06: Bill Winter

From his web site: “I’ve been asked to take on, and I have accepted, the challenge of running for Congress against Tom Tancredo in Congressional District 6. I did not make this decision lightly and I’m not in this to win moral victories. I have a total of ten years of service with the Marine Corps and the Navy, and in good Marine Corps tradition, I’m in it to win it and I believe we can! […] I want to serve — the way I served as a 17 year old in the Marine Corps. I want to give CD6 back to the people.”

Bio | Contribute

GA-01: Jim Nelson

Jim Nelson lives in Savannah with his wife, Marty. They married 33 years ago in Augusta, GA while Nelson served as an Airborne Infantry Officer during the Vietnam War at Fort Gordon. He also spent more than a decade in the Army Reserve and National Guard. […] Nelson works as a United Methodist pastor in Savannah and has been serving churches in South Georgia for more than 10 years. […] Prior to entering ministry, Nelson worked in the corporate world for companies such as IBM, Lockheed, GE, and Apollo Computers. He’s also owned a successful business, Signatures Unlimited Fundraising Consultants. A long-time community activist, Nelson has been a leader of local groups such as S.A.F.E. Shelter and the Savannah Mediation Center.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

IL-06: Tammy Duckworth

L. Tammy Duckworth of Hoffman Estates has built her life and career upon serving her country, her community and those in need around the world. She is a dedicated, tireless leader and an inspirational example of what can be achieved through hard work, determination, compassion for others and a positive outlook. Having recently recovered from serious injuries sustained while serving on active duty in Iraq, Tammy’s next goal – in addition to flying helicopters again for the Illinois Army National Guard – is to fight for the interests of the people of Illinois’ Sixth District in the United States Congress.

Bio | Contribute

IL-14: John Laesch

Driven by his desire to serve his country, John enlisted in the United States Navy in 1995. In 1996, Laesch graduated at the top of his class as an Intelligence Analyst for the United States Navy and was transferred to the Middle East for the next three years. While stationed in Bahrain, Laesch analyzed terrorist organizations and foreign political and military structures. Before being medically evacuated from the Middle East and honorably discharged, John meritoriously rose 5 ranks within 3 short years. He received numerous citations for his outstanding service to our nation. Following his service in the Navy, Mr. Laesch attended Illinois State University where he earned a Bachelor of Science degree with a major in History and minors in Political Science and Communications.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

IN-04: Rick Cornstuble

Rick is a Navy veteran of the Viet Nam War, earning the Viet Nam Service Medal with one campaign star. He also served on the secondary recovery ship for the Moon Landing in 1969. After returning from duty, he graduated from the University of Oklahoma with a degree in Social Studies Education.

For more than 30 years, Rick Cornstuble has dedicated his life to fighting for Indiana’s public schools as a field director for the Indiana State Teachers Association (ISTA). He now seeks to bring that same commitment and energy as an advocate for the people in Indiana’s Fourth Congressional District.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

KY-02: Mike Weaver

Growing up on values he has summed up as “Family, Faith, and Farm Work,” Weaver joined the U.S. Navy at the age of 17. He served on a Destroyer Escort for three and a half years as an electronics technician. After marrying his wife, he spent four years in the Army, including a tour in Korea. Weaver has already given Kentucky much to be proud of, but as a Member of Congress would give even more.

Bio | Issues

MD-03: Mishonda Baldwin

Ms. Baldwin’s life is demonstrative of using obstacles as stepping stones to reach her goals. She was one of the first African American woman ROTC Battalion Commanders. She was the first woman elected twice to serve as the chairperson of a national community service organization. In addition, as one of the youngest owners of a national franchise, Ms. Baldwin has a tremendous understanding for small business needs. Her experience led to her service of providing advice and assistance to emerging growth companies as a mentor for the University of Maryland Dingman Center for Entrepreneurship. She has effectively restored breaches, brought hope to the hopeless, encouraged individuals who have given up, and reached out to individuals who others had thrown away. Ms. Baldwin hopes to continue making history by becoming the first African American woman elected to the United States House of Representatives in the state of Maryland.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

MD-06: Andrew Duck

Duck’s distinguished military career has found him as a Platoon Leader of the Joint STARS Platoon in Bosnia, Chief of a Counter-Intelligence Operations Cell, a Commander, and later an Intelligence Liaison Officer and Intelligence Staff Officer in Iraq. Duck is a native of Maryland, one of seventeen children, and has ample business and community experience supplementing his military background.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

MN-01: Tim Walz

Command Sergeant Major Walz retired from the 1-125th Field Artillery Battalion in the spring of 2005 after 24 years in the Army National Guard. After he was named the Outstanding Young Nebraskan by the Nebraska Chamber of Commerce for his service in the education, military, and small business communities, Walz served overseas with his battalion in support of Operation Enduring Freedom.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

NC-08: Tim Dunn

Colonel Tim Dunn has served in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserves since 1994. He recently returned from Iraq and his posting with the Regime Crimes Liaison Office, where he helped build the case against Saddam Hussein.  In 1995, Dunn established his own law firm, which concentrates in criminal and military law. The mission in Iraq will need expertise and experience to see it through to the best possible conclusion, and Tim Dunn can bring a strong dose of both to the “People’s House.”

Bio | Issues | Contribute

NH-01: Pete Duffy

Pete Duffy is a citizen-soldier, community activist, small businessman and a father. His commitment to country is exemplified by his more than 30 years of military experience as a Judge Advocate General officer in the active Army, the Army Reserves and the New Hampshire National Guard, where he recently retired with the rank of Colonel.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

NH-01: Peter Sullivan

State Representative Peter M. Sullivan is serving his third term as a member of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, representing Manchester’s downtown, millyard and center city neighborhoods. He serves as a member of the Criminal Justice Committee, and previously served on the House State-Federal Relations & Veterans Affairs Committee.

In 2003, Peter Sullivan was featured in 100 To Watch: The Next Generation of Leadership, a publication profiling the top one hundred rising stars in the Democratic Party nationwide. Sullivan joined such notable Democratic leaders as Sen. Barack Obama, Sen. Ken Salazar and Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz in receiving this prestigious honor.

Bio | Contribute

NJ-03: Rich Sexton

Rich Sexton has been a leader dedicated to public service his entire life. Born and raised in New Jersey, he left home at the age of 18 for the United States Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. He graduated from Annapolis and was commissioned an Ensign in the United States Navy. He was then stationed onboard an aircraft carrier, the U.S.S. Enterprise, at the time the largest warship in the world. […] Rich and his family are grateful for the freedom and opportunity they have enjoyed in America and while he aims to provide the people of New Jersey’s Third Congressional District with better representation more in tune with working class families and mainstream America, Rich is also running for Congress to help protect and preserve our freedom and to help extend to all Americans the opportunities that he and his family have enjoyed.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

NY-29: Eric Massa

After graduating from the U.S. Naval Academy at Annapolis, Maryland, Massa was commissioned as a Naval Officer and went on to spend a total of 24 years on active duty. He served in Desert Storm, and later as Special Assistant to General Wes Clark, in Panama and then when he became Supreme Allied Commander of NATO forces. Massa left a position on the staff of the House Armed Services Committee, where he spoke his mind on behalf of the troops, to join the presidential campaign of his former boss Wesley Clark.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

OH-18: Joe Sulzer

Joe Sulzer is an Army veteran who volunteered to serve during the Vietnam War from August 1967 to August 1968. He was in Saigon during the Tet Offensive. He has since come back to serve on the city council and later as mayor in Chillicothe, Ohio, as well as a serving as a state representative. He is now taking on the scandal-plagued Republican Bob Ney in his heavily Republican district.

Bio | Contribute

PA-07: Bryan Lentz

In Iraq, Lentz commanded a civil affairs unit responsible for reconstruction in Mosul, following unique and extensive experience in international reconstruction projects with MFO and NATO peacekeeping missions in the Sinai Peninsula and Bosnia. A decorated veteran, he has received the War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal and the Bronze Star amongst other commendations.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

PA-08: Patrick Murphy

Murphy is a young attorney who served in Iraq and was awarded the Bronze Star in February 2004. In Iraq, Captain Murphy advised on offensive operations, initiated reconstruction efforts within the justice system, trained the new Iraqi Civil Defense Corps on the rules of engagement and was instrumental in the prosecution of Sheik Moyad, a radical lieutenant of Muqtada Sadr. At a time when even journalists are having trouble getting the real facts about the war in Iraq, Murphy’s knowledge is invaluable.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

PA-10: Chris Carney

A Lieutenant Commander in the United States Naval Reserve, Chris has received several medals honoring his service in multiple tours overseas. He was activated for operations Enduring Freedom and Noble Eagle. From late 2003 to August 2004, Chris served as the Special Advisor to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations, focusing on the integration of intelligence in the effort to destroy international terrorist networks. In the last year, Chris served as a Special Consultant on Terrorism and Intelligence Issues to the Deputy Secretary of Defense.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

PA-17: Phil Avillo

Phil Avillo knows the American Dream well. He has lived it. His mother and father, a bus mechanic who never finished high school, dreamed their son would go to college. Phil more than fulfilled his parents’ dreams. He earned a Ph.D. and, as a York College professor, has inspired thousands of college students to pursue their own American Dream.That dream, and America’s middle class, is now in jeopardy. So, as he did when he joined the Marines, and as he has done throughout his life, Phil is heeding the call to serve and to lead.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

PA-18: Tom Kovach

Tom is “proud to be one of the millions of Americans who has served this country and its defense. I enlisted in the Navy and was trained as a nuclear machinest mate. Most of my career was spent on USS Nimitz minding the tea kettle. That experience, training, and confidence led me to become a fighting Democrat in Pennsylvania’s 18th District as I will take that seat away from the do-nothing, rubber stamp of Tim Murphy next November.”

Bio | Issues | Contribute

SC-03: Lee Ballenger

The son of a Southern Baptist minister and a native of Greenwood, Lee Ballenger spent six years in the U.S. Navy as a missile fire control technician and was awarded the Navy Expeditionary Medal for service during U.S. operations in the Iran-Iraq War and the Armed Forces Expeditionary Medal for his role during operations in the Persian Gulf. He also earned the Navy Achievement Medal for saving a fellow shipmate’s life in that conflict. As a veteran, he understands what it is to serve on the front lines on behalf of our country.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

TN-03: Terry Stulce

Terry Stulce is a life-long resident of Ooltewah and can trace his ancestry back 5 generations in Hamilton County. He graduated Phi Beta Kappa and Magna Cum Laude from U.T.K. in 1967 and earned a Master of Science in Social Work in 1974. He served two tours of combat duty in Vietnam, one as a Combat Platoon Leader in the 101st Airborne Division (December, 1967 to September, 1968) and one as a Senior Advisor to the 69th and 79th Border Ranger Battalions (November, 1970 to November 1971). In addition to the Combat Infantryman’s Badge, he earned the Bronze Star with “V” device for Valor and the Bronze star for Meritorious Services in Ground Combat.

Bio

TX-03: Dan Dodd

Dan Dodd is a dedicated father, husband of 36 years and career Air Force Officer with an extensive family military background. Character and effective leadership are the hallmarks of his military, business and personal life. Dan is a moderate Democrat, running for Congress in 2006 to fill the leadership and accountability vacuum that threatens America’s welfare and security.

He will work for Texans to return fiscal responsibility to the federal budget, high standards to education, protect equal rights and economic opportunity for all Americans - to achieve transparent government, bipartisan leadership and enhanced national security for our great nation.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

TX-06: David Harris

Harris enlisted in the Army in 1992 and served in the infantry, receiving his commission as an Infantry Officer after attending Officer Candidate School at Fort Benning, GA in 1994. He was mobilized for Operation Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom and was deployed to Iraq in February, 2003, spending the next 14 months there as a Logistics Officer where he received a Bronze Star. He is now an Assistant Professor of Military Science and Training Officer for the Department of Military Science at the University of Texas at Arlington, and is taking on “Smoky” Joe Barton.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

TX-07: David Murff

David Murff’s devotion to achievement and uncompromising ethics have served him well throughout his personal and professional career. As a single child, he was surrounded by familial role models that instilled in him the virtues of sacrifice, dedication, and service. As a young man, David became the third generation to serve his country through military service. While stationed at Fort Hood, TX, great ethical leaders, who not only supported the ideals of his family, but lived them daily, inspired in David the confidence, creativity, and committment he continues to exude throughout his life today.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

TX-10: Ted Ankrum

From his website: “I was Special Assistant to the only Astronaut to ever be Head of NASA; Deputy Chief of Facilities Engineering and Chief of Environmental Compliance at NASA; a Diplomat in Australia; and held other Senior Executive positions at EPA, the Department of Energy, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. I went from Seaman Recruit to Navy Captain in 15 years of active duty and 15 years of Reserve service. I served four tours in Vietnam, where I was wounded and received medals for valor. I have a BS Degree in Electrical Engineering from a Navy scholarship to the U. of Colorado and an MBA from the GI Bill at Loyola. My wife, Ann, and I live in Cypress, Harris County; and two of our four children also live in Congressional District Ten.”

Bio & Issues | Contribute

TX-21: John Courage

John Courage’s name embodies what Texans in District 21 are looking for in their next congressman - the courage to insist that their mainstream values, and not just Tom DeLay’s, be represented in Washington; the courage to stand with ordinary Texas families and small businesses against the corporate special interests; the courage to rekindle that faith they once had in government to be a force for positive change in their daily lives.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

VA-02: David Ashe

When the September 11th attacks occurred, David was visiting his family in Virginia Beach. 48 hours after the attacks, David rented a car and made his way to Manhattan. He entered the perimeter with a group of police officers and spent several days at GroundZero searching for survivors with the rest of the “bucket brigades.” Two weeks later, David was recalled to active duty. Upon return to active duty, David was assigned as deputy legal counsel to the commanding general of all west coast Marine forces with geographic responsibility for the Middle East. For most of 2002, David was part of Operation Enduring Freedom deployed to Kuwait as sole-legal counsel to the commanding general of a special-purpose coalition task force, working with Czechs, Germans and Kuwaitis. […] In March 2003, David was deployed again. Within a few weeks, he was attached to an infantry battalion assigned to the Al Muthanna region of Iraq. David was the sole coalition legal representative assigned to restore the judicial system in an area which covered approximately 1/9 of Iraq.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

VA-05: Al Weed

Al spent over forty-two years as an enlisted man, rising to the rank of Command Sergeant Major (CSM), which he had held for over twenty years when he retired in 2002. He was in the service continuously from 1959 to 2002, except for a 6-month gap following his honorable discharge from the Army after his tour in Vietnam ended in July of 1966. For most of his career he served in Army and Joint Special Operations, serving as the senior non-commissioned officer at every level from A-Detachment to Special Operations Command.

Bio | Issues | Contribute

--TJ

August 13, 2005

NW Blogger Joins Sheehan, Others in Crawford

#61#

As I posted last night, a growing string of local media outlets are running stories about Cindy Sheehan, often featuring someone from their town who held a support rally or even came out to Crawford themselves. One of the linked stories was from the Seattle PI, which NPI picked up and connected the dots as to who Lietta Ruger is: the co-author (with her husband) of the robustly named Dying to Preserve the Lies, URL-linked by the name dyingwarriors.com, and a partner blog to the alliances that grew from the Downing Street revelations.

Lietta's first full-day dispatch yesterday showed how busy it was, in terms of the media exposure they were putting themselves under. Those who have gone to make a statement, to be heard, they'd better have something to say. This is their stage for the moment; they have the proverbial floor and you don't get to keep it for very long if you can't justify your disruption, so I have to reject the criticism that they are whoring themselves out by being so media overexposed. That's what they wanted, to be shown as supporting the lives of the young men and women overseas, and to register as bitterly opposed to the war that threatens them. Let them speak to anyone who will listen now. Sheehan is doing some speaking; her testimonial and challenge to Bush is airing in a small buy in Crawford, designed to get free reairings by the media. It's surprisingly strident and frank. I liked it.

The road directly in front of the White House's is closed due to 9/11. You may walk across Lafayette Park  to cross its silenced street and move up to the gates of the backyard, and peer through the irons. I saw it recently, and while it's sad the road had to be closed, the White House never looked better. It gained a stateliness to have nothing else moving, no activity in front of it (well, it's the backside actually). There is some activity, actually: a continuous vigil has been underway on the opposite side just inside the park since 1981, seeking the cessation of nuclear weapons production and stockpiling.

Back then, the park was demonstration central. Now, only small gatherings are allowed, unless you keep a continuous presence to your protest, as a vigil. Ironically, 9/11 gave them what is akin to exclusivity in front of the White House, and also thanks to the Bush administration the calls for nuclear reduction and antiproliferation are once again relevant to current events.  (It was probably a lonely time during the heydays of detente).

So Cindy has a long way to go, but all she needs is the rest of the month to make her point. It's hard to say whether she'll really become a known national figure, but so far the way her story has drawn increasing attention I think it's increasingly likely. There are people who do think she's self-aggrandizing, being puppeteered by the likes of Michael Moore, or disgracing her son's service by protesting the Commander in Chief. But thanks to Firedoglake, we get a good look at them. Apparently just a bunch of stooges...!

--TJ

June 29, 2005

How Could Iraq Happen?

Predictably, the president's speech last night has many invoking parallels to LBJ speaking about Vietnam.  Turning back the calender to 1967, this essay by James C. Thompson, Jr., then an east Asia specialist and Harvard historian, provides clues by uncovering 40 year old DNA. 

The entire article is a timely lesson in history repeating itself.  But this closing paragraph, warning future Americans, suggests Thompson was prophetic:

From How Could Vietnam Happen?

There is a final result of Vietnam policy I would cite that holds potential danger for the future of American foreign policy: the rise of a new breed of American ideologues who see Vietnam as the ultimate test of their doctrine. I have in mind those men in Washington who have given a new life to the missionary impulse in American foreign relations: who believe that this nation, in this era, has received a threefold endowment that can transform the world. As they see it, that endowment is composed of, first, our unsurpassed military might; second, our clear technological supremacy; and third, our allegedly invincible benevolence (our "altruism," our affluence, our lack of territorial aspirations). Together, it is argued, this threefold endowment provides us with the opportunity and the obligation to ease the nations of the earth toward modernization and stability: toward a fullfledged Pax Americana Technocratica. In reaching toward this goal, Vietnam is viewed as the last and crucial test. Once we have succeeded there, the road ahead is clear. In a sense, these men are our counterpart to the visionaries of Communism's radical left: they are technocracy's own Maoists. They do not govern Washington today. But their doctrine rides high.

They govern Washington today.

-- Zap

June 12, 2005

GWOT goes to Africa

U.S. TROOPS DEPLOYED IN MAURITANIA

Following the recent slaying of 17 government soldiers in a terrorist attack on a military base in northern Mauritania, the United States has sent a contingent of 2,000 soldiers, as well as helicopters, to the area, the United Arab Emirates daily 'Al-Kalheej' reported on Friday. The US troops will use military bases set up in the desert in Mauritania and Mali three years ago as part of the war on terror. [...]

Analaysts say the GSPC took responsiblity for carrying out the attacks on the detachment of the Mauritanian army in an attempt to get back in favour with al-Qaeda, which the analysts allege has lately been distancing itself from the GSPC, due to the high number of defections in its ranks.

The stand-off between the GSPC and al-Qaeda is said to have begun April when Tunisian police arrested ten alleged terrorists heading to the Algerian mountains to join guerilla training camps. The ten were reportedly preparing a major attack against the capital Tunis, but Tunisian police managed to uncover the cell as a result of informants within the Algerian Salafite group.

I've argued for some time that bin Laden is in the Lahore area of Pakistan.  My belief is based on a significant amount of open source intelligence that I've been negligent to share with A2 readers.  That could turn out to be a good thing, because I'm beginning to believe he's in Africa, based on an equally convincing file I've been building. 

I promised a post on Africa this weekend, and the above is a small part of what I wanted to cover, but I'm a little under the weather (and the NBA finals are on).  Still, this isn't the type of information you're going to find covered by our media, and it is the correct way to prosecute the war on terror.  It's about time.

Update.  The IHT via Eric Schmitt of the NYT has excellent related information.

Not all northern African militants turning up in Iraq belong to a group like Salafist or the Moroccan Islamist Combatant Group. But the skills they learn and the connections they make with other insurgents there is making Iraq a training ground and networking hub for terrorists, these officials say.

"They're getting to use those training skills, hone them and eventually go somewhere else and use them," one defense official said. "The bottom line is you've developed a new extremist. It doesn't paint a pretty picture down the road."

While I agree the approach in Mauritania is correct, it is a shame we made the job so much more difficult with Iraq. 

-- Zap

May 30, 2005

Seeing Yourself in the Wall

[Some of you may recall our introduction to Theo Carracino here at Also Also. He is the former  editor of the Texas-Arlington Shorthorn who discovered an incident of serious plagiarism by Melody Townsel, a tabloidly-prominent accuser of John Bolton. In the interest of setting a clear record on the incidents of that time, for the truth's own sake, Mr. Carracino and I have exchanged several emails on the subject. He has begun to deeply explore the blogosphere, and became a member of the Daily Kos in order to participate in the diaries I was posting.

Today I discovered something else about Theo: he's a veteran.  He was at the Vietnam wall today, and committed his thoughts to the ether at Kos, in his first authored diary. Since I already knew he had been a journalist, it doesn't surprise me that he would write something so eloquent and moving. Amid the forest of annual memorial columns, the self-righteous gung-ho screeds, and the Internet flotsam that clogs my inbox, Theo's utterly sincere words rang true with me. I'm happy to reprint them here, with the author's permission. To everyone with military service in peacetime or war--but today especially in war--my personal gratitude and appreciation. Let our noble sacrifices be few and only necessary, in the future.

--TJ]

I told myself I wasn’t going to cry or weep or get misty-eyed at the
service today down at the Vietnam Veterans Memorial. I’d done it
before. I cried when I first saw all those names 1985. I cried again on
cold, gray Veterans Day, when the now-grown Phan Thi Kim Phuc spoke of
forgiveness and healing. But I wasn’t alone in my tears when veterans,
officers, politicians and citizens heard a quiet and lilting appeal to
the better angels of our nature coming from a woman who received
worldwide notoriety 25 years earlier as a 9-year-old running naked down
the road and screaming in pain as the napalm seared her flesh.

But today I was at the Wall to take photos of my colleagues — there to
lay a wreath as they have for the past 12 years on Veterans Day and
Memorial Day. So I snapped away and filled the lens with flowers and
ribbons, and I captured all those artistic shots of the wreath that
captured the Wall’s reflective nature in the background. And I shot
with not a little pride as I looked around and saw the hundreds of
small American and POW-MIA flags clutched in so many hands — all
compliments of my company’s employee resource group for veterans.

The speeches began. The colors were presented. In a delicious scene of
irony, the Secretary of our Homeland’s Insecurity led the Pledge of
Allegiance. The chaplain spoke to God, and I guess we were there as
stand-in listeners.

Pat Moneymaker, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, broke his
self-imposed silence in talking about his time in Vietnam, and of the
son he lost in a recent combat operation. With a voice so full of
emotion that it seemed at times he wouldn’t be able to continue, he
urged all those who had kept their own silence and counsel about the
past to speak. The sea of nodding heads was an affirmation of his call;
the standing ovation was a gift of acknowledgement. So too was the
call, “Welcome home, brother,” that soared over my shoulder to the rear
admiral and the crowd.

But it was Allen Kale’iolani Hoe’s lyrical tale of being bound by two
wars that got to me. Hell, it got to everyone. He spoke of the war in
which he fought and survived, and the one in which his son fought and
perished three months ago in Iraq. He spoke of bringing that
12-year-old boy to the Wall and having him touch the names of comrades
who fell in 1968. He spoke lovingly and proudly of those comrades, and
he spoke in loving terms of the son who asked to carry the flag of his
father’s unit. And there is was, in front of us all, propped up at
Allen Hoe’s feet. And lastly, he spoke of the small miracle of meeting
a nurse earlier that day not more than 500 feet from where he was
speaking -- a nurse who recognized the picture of Allen Hoe's son on
his lapel and said she remembered him ... said she was with him when he
died.

Damn. I got misty, and it’s mighty hard to look through a lens when
your own natural ones are blurred by tears. But once again, I wasn’t
alone. I looked around and saw a sea of eyes wetter than mine. I saw
the wet trails of tears on so many cheeks of so many people of every
stripe and color and age and rank and belief.

So thanks, Allen Hoe, for your eloquence. Thanks to all my Vietnam-era
comrades, be they in arms or not. It’s hard to thank the dead, harder
still to call on God for some sense of meaning to the deaths of all who
fell in my youth, and all who have fallen in the folly of the past few
years. Still, I’m humbled by the sacrifice. I honor them today as the
veteran I am. I honor them as the citizen I strive to be in the
ceaseless fight to reclaim the national dignity abandoned by this
administration.

Mostly, I remember the fallen on the Wall and the times of my turbulent
generation in which they fell. I do that often, and my eyes are usually
drier, and my mind is usually clearer. But today, in the shadow of the
Lincoln Memorial, it was those mystic chords of memory that did me in.

Next year I’m not going to cry.

--Theo Carracino

Memorial

Memorial_day

-- Zap

May 16, 2005

BRAC - Which 33 Major Bases?

Reviewing our referrals, this seems to be the most common question:  Which major bases?  So, like the many linking this way, I set out to find the 33 major base closures and provide a link.  No luck. 

Two primary headlines announced the BRAC recommendation this past Friday.  One said, in one way or another, "Pentagon seeks to close 180 military bases."  That one probably soiled some jeans.  The other said, "Pentagon recommends closing 33 major bases."  And that's the one most are interested in.

So, I scrolled the list in this PDF document, and isolated all BRAC recommendations that cut 500 or more jobs.  Here's what I came up with:

Major closures:

1. Naval Support Activity, California, Close:  -892
2. Sub Base New London, Connecticut, Close:  -8460
3. Fort Gillem, Georgia, Close:  -1081
4. Fort McPherson, Georgia, Close:  -4141
5. NAS Atlanta, Georgia, Close:  -1498
6. NSCS, Georgia, Close:  -513
7. Newport Chem Depot, Indiana, Close:  -571
8. NSA New Orleans, Louisiana, Close:  -2711
9. Naval Shipyard Portsmouth, Maine, Close:  -4510
10. Otis Air Guard, Massachusetts, Close:  -505
11. Naval Station Pascagoula, Mississippi, Close:  -963
12. DFAS Kansas City, Missouri, Close:  -613
13. Fort Monmouth, New Jersey, Close:  -5272
14. Cannon AFB, New Mexico, Close:-2824
15. Niagra Falls Air Guard, New York, Close:  -642
16. Umatilla Depot, Oregon, Close:  -512
17. Portland Air Guard, Oregon, Close:  -564
18. NAS Willow Grove, Pennsylvania, Close:  -1232
19. SNFEC, South Carolina, Close:  -543
20. Ellsworth AFB, South Dakota, Close:  -3852
21. Brooks City Base, Texas, Close:  -2923
22. Naval Station Ingleside, Texas, Close:  -2218
23. Red River Army Depot, Texas, Close:  -2500
24. Fort Monroe, Virginia, Close:  -3564

Major realignments:

1. Eielson AFB, Alaska, Realign:  -2940
2. Naval Base Ventura, California, Realign:  -1534
3. Naval Medical Center, California, Realign:  -1630
4. Walter Reed Medical Center, D.C., Realign:  -5630
5. NAS Pensacola, Florida, Realign:  -1579
6. Mountain Home AFB, Idaho, Realign:  -569
7. Naval Station Great Lakes, Illinois, Realign:  -2022
8. Rock Island Arsenal, Illinois, Realign:  -1263
9. NSA Crane, Indiana, Realign:  -683
10. Fort Knox, Kentucky, Realign:  -2944
11. NAS Brunswick, Maine, Realign:  -2420
12. MCAS Cherry Point, North Carolina, Realign:  -628
13. Pope AFB, North Carolina, Realign:  -4145
14. Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota, Realign:  -2645
15. DFAS Cleveland, Ohio, Realign: -1028
16. Lackland AFB, Texas, Realign:  -3140
17. NAS Corpus Christi, Texas, Realign:  -1025
18. Shephard AFB, Texas, Realign:  -2624
19. Fort Eustis, Virginia, Realign:  -2452
20. McChord AFB, Washington, Realign:  -567

Leased space closure or realignment:

1. Leased Space, Virginia, Realign/Close:  -22925
2. Leased Space, Missouri, Realign/Close:  -2093

There's 24 bases closing and 20 realigning with over 500 or more positions being dropped.  Of those, 30 have over 1000 being dropped or realigned.  Let's call those "major" and add the Navy bases in Corona, Crane and Pascagoula.  That makes 33.

1. Naval Support Activity, California, Close:  -892
2. Sub Base New London, Connecticut, Close:  -8460
3. Fort Gillem, Georgia, Close:  -1081
4. Fort McPherson, Georgia, Close:  -4141
5. NAS Atlanta, Georgia, Close:  -1498
6. NSA New Orleans, Louisiana, Close:  -2711
7. Naval Shipyard Portsmouth, Maine, Close:  -4510
8. Naval Station Pascagoula, Mississippi, Close:  -963
9. Fort Monmouth, New Jersey, Close:  -5272
10. Cannon AFB, New Mexico, Close:-2824
11. NAS Willow Grove, Pennsylvania, Close:  -1232
12. Ellsworth AFB, South Dakota, Close:  -3852
13. Brooks City Base, Texas, Close:  -2923
14. Naval Station Ingleside, Texas, Close:  -2218
15. Red River Army Depot, Texas, Close:  -2500
16. Fort Monroe, Virginia, Close:  -3564
17. Eielson AFB, Alaska, Realign:  -2940
18. Naval Base Ventura, California, Realign:  -1534
19. Naval Medical Center, California, Realign:  -1630
20. Walter Reed Medical Center, D.C., Realign:  -5630
21. NAS Pensacola, Florida, Realign:  -1579
22. Naval Station Great Lakes, Illinois, Realign:  -2022
23. Rock Island Arsenal, Illinois, Realign:  -1263
24. NSA Crane, Indiana, Realign:  -683
25. Fort Knox, Kentucky, Realign:  -2944
26. NAS Brunswick, Maine, Realign:  -2420
27. Pope AFB, North Carolina, Realign:  -4145
28. Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota, Realign:  -2645
29. DFAS Cleveland, Ohio, Realign: -1028
30. Lackland AFB, Texas, Realign:  -3140
31. NAS Corpus Christi, Texas, Realign:  -1025
32. Shephard AFB, Texas, Realign:  -2624
33. Fort Eustis, Virginia, Realign:  -2452

That's one way of looking at it, but it's probably not exactly what the Pentagon is pointing to when they say "33 major bases."  If someone has a better breakdown, please share.  With the exception of a few specific circumstances, the 33 above do detail the negative side of economic impacts. 

Update:  I found some "better" information, but I'm not sure things add up

Fourteen major Army bases are recommended for closure, including Forts Gillem and McPherson in Atlanta; Fort Monroe, Va.; Fort Monmouth, N.J.; and the Lone Star Army Ammunition Plant and Red River Army Depot in Texas.

Nine major Navy bases will close, including Submarine Base, New London, Conn.; Willow Grove Naval Air Station, Pa.; Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, Maine; Naval Station Pascagoula, Miss.; and Naval Air Station Atlanta.

Ten major Air Force installations are closing, including Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D.; Onizuka Air Force Station, Calif.; Cannon Air Force Base, N.M.; Otis Air National Guard Base, Mass.; and Brooks City Base, Texas.

Then:

DoD defines major realignments as installations losing at least 400 people. The five major Army realignments are Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington; the Rock Island Arsenal, Ill.; Fort Knox, Ky.; and Fort Eustis, Va.; and the Army Reserve Personnel Center in St. Louis.

Eleven Navy realignments include Naval Station Great Lakes, Ill.; Naval Station San Diego; and naval air stations in Brunswick, Maine, Corpus Christi, Texas, and Pensacola, Fla. The Marine Corps Logistics Base in Barstow, Calif., also will realign, as will the naval medical centers in Portsmouth, Va., and San Diego.

Ten major Air Force realignments include Eielson and Elmendorf Air Force bases, both in Alaska; Maxwell Air Force Base, Ala.; Lackland and Sheppard Air Force bases, Texas; and McChord Air Force Base, Wash.

-- Zap

May 13, 2005

THE OFFICIAL BRAC LIST

The post above links to a long (pdf) report from the DoD that categorizes the official recommendations several ways.  Above, I've tried to break down the information by major recommendations, and I will continue to post reviews of the report from a few different angles.

Here is the official (appendix C) BRAC list:  Courtesy Fox News (pdf).

Appendix C is a state by state review of the personnel impact-- jobs.  Below I summarize that review.  I've tried to highlight the most important developments, but I doubt I covered everything.  So, feel free to pipe in googlers. 

This topic has generated thousands of search engine hits, and I know some knowledgeable folks are reading my ongoing BRAC coverage.  So, it's that little link at the bottom of each post that says "comments."  I would enjoy input and conversation as those of us who've followed this process in the past know the food fight starts Monday and continues for months on end. 

My initial thougts from doing my own summarizing are:

The Air Force was dead serious about saving enough money to buy new planes.

The Army is creating some huge MegaBases, but still not forthcoming in cutting fat.

The Navy is very forthcoming, but slipped through this round with plenty of fat on the love handles.

Consolidating the finance and accounting function makes the list look much bigger than it is.

Vets may lament the Medical Facility closures, but doctors are in short supply.

There does appear to be an obvious Red State bias, but I haven't looked too hard at that angle yet.  I'll trust Congress to do that before I do.

I'm shocked Nellis, Miramar and the Marine Depot in San Diego are all standing, and they shouldn't be.

There's no way this round saves the 6+ billion annually that Rumsfeld is claiming (that figure includes overseas cuts).

I would enjoy some input from the many many many googlers coming by.

My state by state summary follows.  The number following each state's comment represents net personnel movement:

Alabama--  The bad news is the loss of Maxwell AFB, but big net gains at Redstone, Anniston and Fort Rucker give the state a +2664.

Alaska--  Small Kulis closes shop, and Eielson Air Force Base takes a big hit making Alaska one of BRAC's biggest losers; mission requirements move away from the only sort of Evil Empire and towards the Axis of Evil,  -4619.

Arizona--  Big expectations for a net gain were in vain, major facilities breathe a sigh of relief, if not a puff of anger, as modest realignments cost the state, -550.

Arkansas--  A large beneficiary of the realignment process, Little Rock AFB brings welcome news to the community as the state gains, +3585.

California--  Having the nation's largest military infrastructure, this state will get a post of it's own, but needless to say the Goobinator earns a mixed reaction, -2018.

Colorado--  They're partying in Fort Carson, as Colorado is a big winner, +4917.

Connecticut--  Closing the major Sub Base at New London is devastating news, expect a fight, -8586.

Delaware--  There was little fear of Dover AFB closing, but hopes for a big gain have been lost, +91.

District of Columbia--  Walter Reed Medical closes.  Dumping significant military hospitals was a theme worth discussing later, -6496.

Florida--  NAS Pensacola takes a hit, NAS Jax grows as does Elgin AFB.  Rumor has it the Gov has connections, +2757.

Georgia--  Fort Benning nets almost 10,000 new jobs, becomes a MegaBase, even without Sam Nunn this state loves BRAC, +7423

Guam--  Anderson AFB downsizes, -95.

Hawaii--  Pearl Harbor and Fort Shafter survive the rumor mill, -298.

Idaho--  A very surprising negative realignment for Mountain H0me AFB, expect a fight, -659.

Illinois--  Naval Station Great Lakes and the Rock Island Arsenal take hits, -2698.

Indiana-- The beneficiary in the mass consolidation of The Defense Finance and Accounting Service, may not ease the sting of over 600 civilian job losses at Crane, +2197.

Iowa--  Nothing exciting, -6.

Kansas--  Fort Riley continues the expansion of accommodations for overseas troops coming home, +3582.

Kentucky--  Three small reserve centers close and in a big surprise Fort Knox gets a changed mission, and a huge cut, expect another battle, -3658.

Louisiana--  NSA New Orleans was lucky to survive past rounds, but not this one; gains at NAS NO soften the blow, -1297.

Maine--  The writing was on the wall, Portsmouth Shipyard goes down with NAS Brunswick, economic devastation to follow, -6938.

Maryland--  Relocating those Euro troops has MD popping the corks, +9293.

Massachusetts--  The Kerry/Kennedy paranoia proves false, +491.

Michigan--  The Detroit Arsenal survives, +125.

Minnesota--  Realigning Fort Snelling, -262.

Mississippi--  Fears in Pascagoula prove valid, -1678.

Missouri--  Big cuts in leased space and The Finance and Accounting Service strike an unexpected economic blow, -3679.

Montana--  Nothing exciting to report, -124.

Nebraska--  Closing NG Reserve Centers and realigning Offutt AFB brings modest cuts, -213.

Nevada--  Las Vegans and analysts alike were happy to see Nellis close and realign to Edwards in California, but no such luck.  Nellis mysteriously expands.  It must be an Area 51 thing, +1059.

New Hampshire--  Eh, +4.

New Jersey--  Fort Monmouth goes out of business, expect a fight, -3760. 

New Mexico--  Cannon AFB closes, the expected growth at White Sands is not to be, -2849.

New York--  Nine minor operations shut down, -1071.

North Carolina--  Also needs a post of it's own.  The closure of Pope AFB and the use of it for the expansion of Fort Bragg is a telling development.  Elizabeth Dole should be good entertainment in the coming brouhaha, -422.

North Dakota--  The Sovietless worries for Grand Forks AFB came true, -2645.

Ohio--  A long list of minor activity leads to a gain, +241.

Oklahoma--  Vance is spared, Fort Sill expands, happy days, +3919

Oregon--  Bases?  We don't need no stinkin' bases!  Umatilla Depot and the Portland Air Guard Station are toast, -1083.

Pennsylvania--  I'll defer to those who know better, but it looks this state dodged a bullet then got hit by the shrapnel, -1878.

Pueto Rico--  Still keeping a healthy, if not fading, footprint on the island, -161.

Rhode Island--  That loud wind you heard this morning was the collective sigh of relief from Newport, which is growing?!  +531.

South Carolina--  A prudent community effort, adding infrastructure, avoiding encroachment, saves Shaw and gains the AFB 800+ new jobs, nicely done, +709.

South Dakota--  Rumsfeld wanted to shut Ellsworth and realign the B1Bs, it's a brutal blow for Rapid City, a future ghost town, -3797.

Tennessee--  NSA Mid South gets an unexpected slice of the pie, +1088

Texas--  Fort Bliss and Fort Sam Houston are scheduled for almost 20,000 new base dwellers, while the Navy and Air Force cut back dramatically, an interesting trade off for the president's home state, +6150

Utah--  Setbacks at Hill AFB and Deseret Chemical Depot, -446

Vermont--  Burlington gets a few jobs, +56.

Virginia--  They lose 8800 civilian jobs and add 5000 military personnel and 2000 Mission Contractors, the net may not reflect the economic blow, -1574.

Washington--  Everett goes unscathed and Bremerton expands as the Naval footprint deepens and the Air Force downsizes at McChord and Fairchild, +760

West Virginia--  The limited military presence gets smaller, -251.

Wisconsin--  Cuts at Mitchell Internation and Fort McCoy, -552.

Wyoming--  I expected the unexpected cuts at Mountain Home to show up at Warren AFB, but the base stands pat, +37.

Europe, Asia, Other--  I have a bunch of questions on this line, -13,503.

Total manpower change--  -26,187

-- Zap

May 12, 2005

Another early BRAC List and a little leak

Update!  The LIST is done!  Here it is with my summary.

This one is from Maryland Vets dot org.  I'm not sure how old it is, but it is interesting in scope.  There's 52 bases on the list, which meets my lowered expectations.  Most of these are lesser bases.  All of them are on the g2mil list previously referred to. 

This list is extremely limited compared to the expectations given when the process started.  It will also do little to reshape force structure for the new mission.  It would suggest that Rumsfeld is not forming his lean mean fighting machine, but that politicians have whined their way to an enormous waste of a Pyhrric victory.  If this list is 90% accurate, this round of BRAC is all bark and no bite.

Furthering that angle, an anonymous source in DC working with related information, has informed Also Also that a certain base community whose mayor was expecting 5,000 new jobs and 15,000 new citizens over the next few years can now lower expectations to 1000-1500 new jobs and 3000-4000 new folks coming aboard.  Once the list is official, I'll discuss this leak in a little more detail. 

Finally, there's no hint of irresponsible partisanship in the above list.  California does seem to be getting nailed again, but all of those facilities are, in fact, very wasteful, suffering from encroachment, or unnecessary. 

For those of you losing sleep over this tonight, and I know you number in the millions, the first list above may have the answers you seek, and the second one surely covers any and all bases closing down. 

-- Zap

May 10, 2005

BRAC-- List on Friday, cynicism trumping altruism, rumors, predictions

Update:  The Official List

A decent backgrounder and my basic take on BRAC can be found here.  In closing that post I wrote that I would try to cover, among other items, some of the predictions, lists and rumors filtering through the ether before the May 16th deadline.  Well, now I have a good excuse for not coming through:  Rumsfeld is beating his deadline.  The initial "deathwish" list could be revealed any day, but it seems certain to be released, ironically, Friday... the um... thirteenth.  Below, I'll direct you to what may be the best set of predictions around, based on opinions I've gleaned from several sources, primarily military forums.

First though, the Friday release is possible cause for concern.  Our government loves to release controversial and/or bad news on Fridays.  It's easy to bury a story late Friday.  If the BRAC Commission has done a fair job, sans politics, then the BRAC list shouldn't fall in the "silent Friday" category.  The DoD should be proud of the work.  Back in 01, Rumsfeld and his boss pushed hard for this round of BRAC; they have a spending problem; they want to enhance the use of scarce military dollars for the changing mission; So, here's an opportunity to boast altruistically-- why on a Friday

Spidey senses send up a "red state flag."  Will the Bush Administration use BRAC to marginalize blue state politicians?  I'll be incensed.  So will the affected communities.  But I won't be surprised, and neither should the blue states.  It would be GOP SOP.  Gaining party clout through the BRAC process is the height of irresponsibility to both the military and the country.  We can only pray the spidey senses are paranoid. 

For the second time in months, Rumsfeld has backed off the "draconian mother of all BRACs" talk, explaining the cuts won't be as big as originally planned

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld says the base closure list will be much shorter than originally thought, which he considers welcome news.

"A number of us, as members of Congress, have been concerned that at a time of war with all of the challenges we face militarily, that it may not be a good idea to be closing as many bases as were proposed for closure," said Congressman Sanford Bishop.

"We're still on pins and needles, we're still monitoring the process very, very carefully and very closely," said Tim Martin, C.E.O Albany Area Chamber of Commerce.

Maybe the reason the list is coming out on Friday is because it's highly compromised compared to original expectations.  BRAC watchers know final recommendations were in well over a month ago, and the final list has been ready for about two weeks.  Why not release it as soon as possible?  My guess would be that it's either over-politicized (irresponsible partisanship), "disappointing" in scope (to appease naysayers), or possibly both.

EBW at Wampum blog is posting his "Brac fast" concerns every day until the list is released.  He opposes the process (apparently, because he distrusts neocons).  His cynism makes me seem cheerful.  Like so many across the nation, he's expressing deep concerns for individual facilities, and I have a difficult time sympathizing with that approach.  If the "politicized red state flag" proves valid, I will join the dissent.  If the "appeasement of naysayers" proves valid, I'll be lonely in my dissent. 

How can we tell if it's been unfairly-GOPoliticized?  Simply, California has received a disproportianate amount of past cuts.  If blue California, already streamlined by BRAC, is again asked to bear a burden red Texas and Florida are not, well, it better make real good sense. 

If I seem gung ho to shut down military bases, I am.  I used to audit them for waste and productivity.  EBW believes BRAC doesn't save money.

No monies will be "saved" by base closures. Funding will simply move from line items that Donald Rumsfeld values less, to those he values more.

He accuses Rumsfeld of taking over the process and questions the sensibility of reshaping force structure to prosecute the neocon version of future warfare.  It's an intriguing angle rife with conspiracy theory.  I'm not buying.  Cutting waste, which is rampant, in order to direct funding into more needy, useful and productive programs is incumbent on the military specifically through the BRAC Commission, which I'm trusting to do the right thing, even if not enough.  The waste of infrastructure is real, the cliches about government work are valid, and it's our taxes going down the drain.  We need fiscal hawks in Washington.  "Brac" the Social Security Administration, rather than destroy it, and I'll cheer. 

This article does a good job of explaining the necessity for the "mother of all bracs." 

Despite the hue and cry in Congress about closing bases while the nation is at war, analysts argue that it is an ideal time to see what’s really needed. Previous base closure rounds dealt with hypotheticals and dire descriptions of World War III in Europe; this one is facing the reality of conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan. [...]

Lawmakers and some in the Pentagon have argued against deep cuts in the number of Army bases, citing the need for facilities as the military moves some 70,000 troops and their dependents from Germany and South Korea to the United States.

Rumsfeld, who initially forecast a 20 percent to 25 percent reduction in the 425 domestic bases, indicated last week that far fewer bases are likely to be closed or realigned because of that shift from abroad. The cut may be closer to 7 percent to 12 percent.

Analysts contend that fewer bases could easily handle the returning troops, especially since the rotation will be spaced out over 10 years and many will be moving out to other assignments such as Iraq or Afghanistan. [...]

Analysts fear that Rumsfeld won’t cut as deep because of the political pressures from the services and Congress.

“They’ll end up doing these sort of salami slices,” said Kenneth D. Beeks, vice president for policy at the advocacy group Business Executives for National Security and a former Navy test pilot.

So, where's the rumor list of predictions I promised?  Well, Lt. Smash had a good one, but he's disabled the link.  Just for attention, I started developing my own list through research and querying those I know in the know.  From there I worked the process backwards eliminating from consideration some 300+ bases that will not be closed.  This included many that will likely be net beneficiaries.  That work led me to an interesting investment opportunity in the Southern California desert which prevented me from finishing my amateurish predictions. 

If you've seen Carlton Meyer's work at g2mil.com, that's the best I have to offer.  I do recommend his efforts.  The list has been updated several times, and the wealth of information is worth digesting for those concerned with the process.  His work was quickly discredited by the Pentagon, but I've been reading military bulletin boards, searching for thoughts on specific bases, and g2mil.com has slowly been gaining more and more respect. 

So here's my bold prediction:  With very few surprises, every base that gets closed or realigned is on this list right here, right now.  However, after reading current comments from Rumsfeld, I no longer believe this round will be so inclusive, unfortunately.  So, many of the bases on that list, perhaps more than half of them, will be spared.  Initial estimates had almost 100 bases closing, that was adjusted to somewhere between 60-80, and now I have hunch we're only going to see 40-50 closures if not less. 

Update:  Another list more limited in scope was brought to my attention today.

If you have particular questions that g2mil isn't addressing, I have done a rather obsessive study on the process. Many excellent resources, lobbyists, community efforts, arguments for and against, are all logged here somewhere and happily provided in response to specific questions (it's all too cumbersome to post though).  We'll have the real list in a few short days. 

If you live in a community precariously attached to an endangered base, my thoughts are with you, and good luck. 

Oh, my investment opportunity was looking much better if they were cutting the bigger number.  Drats. 

-- Zap

April 2006

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